Side by Side: Who Is Growing, According to the IMF?

Today’s letter took the global total. Below, the forecasts for this year and next, and the change from July where the fund reported one. India and Pakistan are counted in fiscal years.

The Americas

The United States: 2.3 this year, 2.3 next, unchanged. Canada: 1.1, then 1.7, also unchanged. Mexico: 1.5, raised by 0.3. Brazil: 2.2, trimmed by 0.2. Argentina: 2.1, cut from 3.5, the largest downgrade in the hemisphere, with 3.5 now promised for next year instead.

Europe

The euro area: 1.1, raised by 0.2. Germany: 1.3, raised by 0.6, which is more than France is expected to grow at all. France: 0.4, cut by 0.2. Britain: 1.3, raised by 0.3. Somewhere a German economist is trying not to smile.

Asia

China: 4.5, trimmed by 0.1, and 4.0 next year. India: 7.0, raised by 0.6. Pakistan: 3.5 for the fiscal year now under way. South Korea: 3.3, raised by 0.7, the chips doing the lifting. Japan: 0.7 this year and 0.7 next, a forecast of admirable steadiness.

The Gulf and Australia

Saudi Arabia: a contraction of 3.3 percent this year, cut by 5.0 points, then 7.9 percent growth next year. Australia: 1.9, then 1.6, a tenth lower on both counts than in April.

Verdict

Germany is upgraded by more than France will grow, and Paris will still eat better. Korea rides its chips. Saudi Arabia is told to expect a lost year and then a sprint. Japan grows 0.7 and 0.7, as punctual as its trains. The forecasts move a few tenths at a time, like a man edging along a ledge. Nobody in the table is growing as fast as their finance minister’s speech.